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Hoosiers Football

Michigan Wolverines vs. Indiana Hoosiers: Preview, predictions and prognostications

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When: 3:30 p.m. ET
Where: Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, IN
TV: ABC/ESPN2 (depending on market)
All-Time Series: Michigan leads 54-9
Last Meeting: Michigan 34-10, in 2014
Line: Michigan -11.5

Indiana has a lot of negative streaks it is trying to break this weekend in the final home game of the season for the Hoosiers. Five straight losses this season have jeopardized the chances for a bowl game, which still has not happened under Kevin Wilson and not for this program since 2007. Those are streaks that need to end for Indiana to make the next step, and Michigan provides a perfect opportunity to do so.

Another streak on the line is Michigan’s 19-game winning streak in this series. These are all things that would be a huge deal if Indiana can pull the upset, so let’s count to five to preview this game and see whether that can happen this weekend.

1 Burning Question: Can (essentially) no defense actually knock off the best defense in the country?

This is a game pairing the worst defense in the conference against the best, and the results so far speak for themselves. Michigan is a blown punt away from a 5-0 start in conference play, while Indiana is still seeking that first win in the Big Ten. But will the drastic contrast of styles lead to a different result when these teams meet in Bloomington?

The obvious initial answer would be no, but then again, there are some additional layers to consider. Indiana has the best running back-quarterback combination that Michigan has faced this season, and when Indiana was fully healthy, this team did perform in the clutch moments. This past weekend, the Hoosiers almost knocked off a better Iowa team now that this duo of Jordan Howard and Nate Sudfeld are healthy and back in the action.

So while Michigan will put up some points against the Indiana defense, this particular IU offense will also put up some points against the Michigan defense, in all likelihood. So perhaps the worst defense in the league can beat the best defense in the league.

2 Key Stats:

— 94.7% (Michigan) and 91.7% (Indiana). These are the red zone scoring percentages for both teams. The Wolverines and Hoosiers do have one thing in common and it is highly effective red zone offense. Michigan has 27 touchdowns in 38 opportunities down there, while Indiana has scored 23 touchdowns in 36 total red zone trips. That means when these teams threaten to score, more than likely the trip is paid off with a touchdown, and even if not, with some points. Neither of these teams has turned the ball over in the red zone and that makes a world of difference in close games.

— 240.0 (Michigan) and 504.0 (Indiana). These are the total defensive yards per game allowed by both teams. This is the contrast between the best team in the conference on defense and the worst, as alluded to above. The difference is astounding on paper, just thinking about the Hoosiers giving up well more than twice as many yards and over three times as many points as the Wolverines. If these numbers stay anywhere near averages, then IU has no chance to win. However, thankfully Indiana also has an offense that can keep up with the often-seen defensive lapses.

3 Key Players:

Jordan Howard, Indiana RB – Despite missing two games with injury and most of a third (that latter game counting against his per game averages), Howard still ranks just below Ezekiel Elliott as the most consistent and effective running back in the Big Ten. Howard rushes for 137.3 yards per game and he has seven touchdowns, which is actually a touch lower than you might expect for a keystone of such an effective offense. This is precisely the type of running threat Michigan’s defense must respect, otherwise he will gash the opponent for big plays to keep drives alive and keep the Hoosiers in this game.

Jabrill Peppers, Michigan All Around Threat – Peppers has seen more offensive snaps as the conference play has worn on, leading to a touchdown run a week ago. But his primary responsibilities have remained on special teams and especially as a safety on the Wolverines defense. It is this role where he will have to step up against the potent Indiana offense. If Indiana pushes the pace at all, Peppers may have to end up limiting his snaps to avoid being worn out at the most important time of the game. However, this is the most explosive and exciting player that Michigan will bring to Bloomington for Saturday’s showdown.

Marcus Oliver, Indiana LB – Following a season where Oliver had a medical redshirt thanks to an ACL tear in Week 3, the expectations were fairly low for what production he could provide. However, Oliver has been the best player on the Indiana defense, ranking 4th in the conference with 79 tackles already in 2015. More importantly, he has forced 4 fumbles as well, meaning ball carriers and receivers always have to be diligent about ball security around this linebacker. If Michigan is to have an effective day on offense, the Wolverines will have to scheme to keep Oliver from being a big disruptive force.

4 Bold Prognostications:

Indiana carries a lead into the fourth quarter – This is senior day for the Hoosiers, and the veterans on this team are determined to turn this losing streak around and prove that their coach has actually built a program with progress in five seasons. To do that, six wins is a must, and thus I expect the Hoosiers to start quickly against Michigan. Although the Wolverines will adjust to clamp down quickly on the IU offense, that will cause a lead that will take all game for Michigan to come back from. Thankfully that legendary IU fourth quarter lack of defense will be in play before the end of the game.

Jabrill Peppers approaches 90+ snaps – The talented freshman will likely see a ton of plays on defense, but with a larger load coming on offense, expect Peppers to see his largest use of the season by far. Indeed, if Michigan is desperate for a spark to keep up with the Hoosiers, Peppers may take a lot more offensive snaps than normal. When that happens, he will begin to approach the magic 100 snaps in a game statistic that only two-way ironman type players eventually reach.

Michigan gives up 150 rushing yards – Although I expect Nate Sudfeld to have a reasonably effective day, Michigan is holding opponents to a ridiculous 80.6 yards per game rushing. Jordan Howard will do some heavy lifting with at least 20 carries, and considering his average, plus the mix of other running threats, expect Indiana to double that average this game. That will also let Indiana avoid the trap of having Michigan dominate time of possession, which is what Jim Harbaugh wants to do in view of the potent offense and porous defense on the opposing sideline.

At least one of the teams turns the ball over in the red zone – When you point out a statistic like we did above that these two teams are the most effective red zone scoring teams, thanks to a lack of turnovers, that’s usually when the jinx is in. So as a final bold prediction, I will call for one of those turnovers to bring down the percentages for one or both of the Wolverines and Hoosiers this weekend.

5 Staff Predictions:

Andy: Michigan 31-28 (73-19 overall; 41-50 ATS)
Dave: Michigan 31-21 (75-17 overall; 48-42 ATS)
Greg: Michigan 44-35 (68-26 overall; 50-40 ATS)
Matt: Indiana 38-35 (73-19 overall; 53-37 ATS)
Phil: Michigan 38-26 (27-12 overall; 14-22 ATS) *joined in Week 5

Dave is a FWAA member and a Columnist focusing on Big Ten football for talking10. Before joining talking in 2014, he was a Featured Columnist for three years at Bleacher Report and previously wrote for seven years on SouthernCollegeSports.com. He was born in Hawkeye Country and went to college in Columbus, so there's plenty of B1G running through his blood. Dave is a patent and trademark attorney in his day job. If you have any questions in those areas or about his latest articles, please contact him on Twitter @BuckeyeFitzy.

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Hoosiers Football

Predicting the 2018 Indiana Hoosiers season game-by-game

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As the 2018 college football season enters the first real week, it’s time to lay everything on the line for the Indiana Hoosiers. For us at talking10 that means it’s time to go game-by-game and give you how we see the season playing out.

The annual tradition continues, but with a new twist. This year we’re going video format as we re-launch our YouTube page. So, how does our talking10 kingpin, Andrew Coppens, see the 2018 Indiana Hoosiers season playing out? 

Let’s take a look: 

Don’t forget to subscribe to the talking10 YouTube page. We’ll have video breakdowns and commentary all throughout the 2018 football season. You don’t want to miss it. 

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Football

Can Illinois or Indiana’s QB change spark either program?

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We’ve nearly hit the halfway point for some teams in the Big Ten, and that means time for plenty of reflection. Two programs have done plenty of that over the past week, as both Illinois and Indiana have gone in different directions with their starting quarterbacks.

Earlier this week, Illinois announced that Jeff George Jr. would be the starter. It was a move few didn’t see coming given the anemic production of the Illini offense with Chayce Crouch at quarterback.

Indiana wasn’t far behind, as head coach Tom Allen revealed redshirt freshman Peyton Ramsey would become the sole quarterback to play going forward. It ended four weeks of a two-quarterback system in place.

Both decisions seems smart on paper, but which one will make the biggest impact on their team?

Case For Peyton Ramsey:

Sometimes you win the job out of necessity and some times you win the job because you’ve outplayed everyone else. For me, the latter is true for Ramsey.

One of the most undertold stories of this season has been Indiana’s struggles in the pass game. Everyone saw them carve up Ohio State’s defense for over a half and assumed all was good. Well, Lagow has been ineffective and Ramsey has added a different dimension to an offense trying to find an identity.

To date, Ramsey has split time with Lagow in four games. He’s completed 60.4 percent of his pass (besting Lagow’s 56.3 mark) for 316 yards (6.6 yards per attempt, compared to 6.4 for Lagow). In just 48 attempts this season, Ramsey has equaled Lagow’s TD number at 4, while throwing just one interception.

Throws like this one to Simmie Cobbs for an 18-yard TD is the spark and kind of performance Ramsey can produce:

With an offensive line in flux, Lagow’s immobility has shown to be a big issue. He’s got the arm, but it really isn’t any good when you are under pressure and can’t move? Lagow’s got minus-30 yards on the season, meanwhile Ramsey is second on the team with 117 yards on 34 carries in his limited time on the field. That’s good production for a team searching to get back to the wild offensive numbers they are used to putting up.

A spark is needed, but so is consistency more than anything. Ramsey provides both and for a Hoosiers team that has a ton of talent around him, this should be the calming influence needed to help this team get to a bowl game.

That’s especially the case when you notice how Allen and his teammates respond to his mentality on and off the field.

“It’s more collective. It was really just this game. It was more of a buildup over time,” Allen said earlier this week, via Indiana’s Scout website. “We love both guys, awesome people. … There’s just a grit to (Ramsey), a toughness to him. He’s got a linebacker mentality to how he works.”

Case for Jeff George Jr.:

Illinois is in the middle of a youth movement on both sides of the

George also isn’t a first time starter. He played starter last season, being inserted in to the toughest of road situations possible — a freshman on the road at Michigan. That experience can be helpful for sure, and something George Jr. brought up in talking to the media this week.

“I’m excited to go out there and try to make something happen and try to get this offense rolling. I think I can do my part,” George Jr. said, via IlliniInquirer. “I feel like I know how tough it is to win a game. We went through some ups and some downs last year and now nothing is new.”

There’s also the fact that it did seem as if his connection with the likes of Malik Turner, Mike Dudek and Co. was better than Crouch’s was.

Look, something had to happen, because with Crouch at QB the Illini offense became as one-dimensional as Minnesota’s offense often was with Mitch Leidner behind center the past two years. It didn’t work well for the Gophers, and with a defense still figuring out who it is for the Illini, that would’ve been disastrous the rest of the way.

This is also a great opportunity to showcase George Jr. against the toughest of competition. He’ll go up against a schedule that includes Northwestern, Ohio State and Wisconsin still to go.

Head coach Love Smith seems to be going with a sink or swim mentality to this team — pushing younger players to the brink to see if they respond or fold. Putting George out there as the starter the rest of the way is more of that, and it may be that the rest of his teammates respond to that idea more than they did with Crouch.

Final Verdict: Peyton Ramsey

This one is easy for me. Ramsey has more weapons to work with in the form of wide receivers like Simmie Cobbs and Luke Timian in the fold. He also has a decent running back in freshman Morgan Elison, who is averaging 5.8 yards per carry and has 310 yards in four games so far this season.

As for Jeff George Jr.? Sure, he’s got the same freshman running back with potential as Indiana does, but he’s not set up for success like Ramsey is. Mike Dudek is a weapon and Malik Turner can be good…but Turner has also been inconsistent to say the least.

George also has a bigger body of work, and that body of work suggests a pretty average quarterback at best. He’s completing just 43.1 percent of his passes for 681 yards and five touchdowns to seven interceptions in five games played in his career.

Call me crazy, but those numbers don’t inspire me.

Let’s see who can play better, but if there’s someone who has already shown the ability to succeed under pressure, that has been Ramsey. I’ll take his numbers, situation and moxie over George any day of the week.

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Buckeyes Football

Indiana Hoosiers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Preview: Welcome to the Big Ten in Week 1

The 2017 season kicks off with a Big Ten matchup for the first time in years. Join us as we preview the Buckeyes vs. Hoosiers.

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J.T. Barrett, Ohio STate Buckeyes

When: Thurs., Aug. 31; 8pm ET
Where: Bloomington, Ind.; Memorial Stadium (52,929)
TV: ESPN
All-Time Series: Ohio State leads 72-12-5
Last Meeting: Ohio State win 38-17 (2016)

 

Welcome officially to the 2017 college football season my fellow Big Ten nuts out there. There couldn’t be a more perfect way to start the season than by hitting the ground running with some B1G football, and that is exactly what we get on Thursday night as the Ohio State Buckeyes and Indiana Hoosiers collide in Bloomington, Ind.

This game may not be a marquee matchup, but it is a Big Ten game and there are plenty of storylines all around this one. We’ve got ex-Indiana head coach turned Ohio State co-offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson against his old team. We’ve got two quarterbacks with a lot to prove entering their senior seasons and a whole cast of new characters on the Buckeyes sideline.

We’ll start to get answers to a lot of big questions, but let’s kick our preview off with a look at the most burning question entering this game.

1 Burning Question: What offenses will we really see?

Indiana and Ohio State provide plenty of intrigue, you know, with the whole Kevin Wilson as co-OC vs. his old team and all that. But, the biggest question burning in my mind is just what both offenses will actually look like in Week 1.

Will the Hoosiers keep the offense that Wilson laid the foundation for or will we see some wrinkles? What about Wilson’s influence on Urban Meyer’s power-run version of the spread offense. That isn’t exactly Wilson’s cup of tea and it appears that the passing game is going to be critical to success for the Buckeyes in 2017.

So, if you’re watching this game, keep a close on just how different or not these offenses are for the 2016 versions we saw. Whichever one either adjusts best or executes the old version best is likely to come away the winner on Thursday night.

2 Key Stats

21: That is Ohio State’s current winning streak against the Hoosiers. 

Ohio State has beaten up on a lot of teams over the years, but few have been beaten up as bad as the Hoosiers have been. Even with the resurgences of the IU program to respectability, it hasn’t changed the fact that they can’t seem to beat the Buckeyes ever. Indiana’s last win in the series came back in 1988, a 41-7 beat down of the Buckeyes. Why is that relevant to this game? Well, that win also took place in Bloomington, Ind. and a 21-game win streak is long for anyone, including the Buckeyes.

152.2: That was Indiana’s rushing average per game in 2016.

It also happens to be a low-water mark for a program that became one of the Big Ten’s best rushing attacks over the course of the previous three seasons. Last season showed that the depth that was once there had become depleted. Even with 1,000-yard rusher Devine Redding in the mix, the Hoosiers slipped to 11th in the Big Ten in rushing. While the passing attack will always get the big attention, the silent and deadly run game needs to return in Bloomington for the Hoosiers to have success.

 

3 Key Players

Mike Majette, RB (Indiana): Why is a guy you’ve likely never heard of so vital to the cause for the Hoosiers? Well, one of the best-kept secrets to the Hoosiers rise under Kevin Wilson was the ability of the run game. From 2013 to 2015, the Hoosiers ranked no worse that fourth in the Big Ten in rushing offense. Last season saw a dramatic falloff as Jordan Howard left for the NFL draft and the Hoosiers were just 11th in the Big Ten in rushing. Majette played in just eight games, but put up a healthy 4.6 yards per carry in his sophomore season. If the Hoosiers want to win tonight, Majette needs to be a star and right now, that is a big question mark.

J.T. Barrett, QB (Ohio State): If you would’ve told me that we haven’t seen J.T. Barrett win a Heisman Trophy following his freshman season, I would’ve thought you were crazy. Yet, Barrett hasn’t lived up to the potential shown in his first season. Now, we have Barrett working with a new offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach. All the talk this offseason has been how Barrett can improve as a pocket passer and as a true dual-threat quarterback. Will Wilson’s influence on the offense be a spark for Barrett or has he hit a ceiling? With Indiana’s improving defense, he will be tested tonight.

Damon Arnette, CB (Ohio State): Sometimes there is nothing like being thrown in to the deep end of the pool. While Arnette got game action in his freshman season — making 21 tackles and picking off one ball — there’s a difference between being a bit player and “the guy.” Arnette steps in to starters role for the first time and he’ll likely have the biggest test of the season going against quality names like Simmie Cobbs, Nick Westbrook and Donavan Hale. Can he pass this test early on? If not, it could be dangerous news for the Buckeyes hopes in 2017.

B1G Prediction:

The Buckeyes defensive line is scary good, but the rest of the team is a bit suspect in terms of experience heading in to the opener. While there is a ton of potential and recruiting talent, let’s see it on the field. Personally, I believe the OSU defense has a scare put in to them for the first half of the game at the very least. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Hoosiers putting up 17 points in the first half before being shut down after adjustments are made at halftime.

This will be best Memorial Stadium atmosphere ever: Perhaps atmosphere and Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, Ind. don’t always go hand-in-hand (unless you’re talking about one of the worst in the Big Ten).

Score: Ohio State 34, Indiana 17 (Listen here for more on the game).

 

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Buckeyes Football

Top 25 Players in the Big Ten for 2017: No’s. 10-6

We are almost done with our 2017 preseason Top 25 players list. Who made it inside the top 10, but just out of the running as the best player in the conference heading in to the season?

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It is almost time for pads to start popping and helmets to start cracking together…and that means football season is right around the corner. Here at talking10 it also means the release of our annual Big Ten Preseason Top 25 Players list.

Top 25 List: No’s 25-21 | No’s 20-16 | No’s 15-11 |

We’re 10 players deep, with 15 to go on the countdown. Let’s just hop right back in to the Top 25 players list as the season grows closer and closer.

Don’t forget to follow our staff of Andy Coppens, Phil Harrison, Philip Rossman-Reich and Zach Worthington on Twitter for their breakdowns of the Top 25 and their individual lists.

No. 10. — Akrum Wadley, RB (Iowa)

2016 Season Stats: 1,081 yards, 10 TD’s, 6.4 ypc; 36 receptions, 315 yards, 3 TD’s
Best Game: 23 carries, 115 yards; 5 receptions, 52 yards, 1 TD

Patience has certainly paid off for the now-senior running back for the Hawkeyes. Wadley showed flashes of brilliance early in his career, but he had to share the spotlight with others. That included fellow 1,000-yard back LeShaun Daniels last season.

Wadley comes in to 2017 as the lone featured back for the first time in his career and it could be a very interesting season ahead. He also come back as one of just three returning running backs to crack double digits in rushing touchdowns last season. If Iowa is going to weather the changes at quarterback in 2017, it will do so on the back and legs of Wadley. If history tells us anything, he’s likely up to the challenge.

No. 9. — Clayton Thorson, QB (Northwestern)

2016 Season Stats:  3,128 yards, 58.6 comp. %, 22 TD’s, 9 INT’s
Best Game: at MSU – 27-35 passing, 281 yards, 3 TD’s, 1 INT

Few quarterbacks came in to 2016 as a bigger question mark than Clayton Thorson did entering his sophomore season. After becoming one of just four quarterbacks to top 3,000 yards passing in 2016, the questions have turned in to just how good can Thorson really be. Well, considering he went from mistake-prone and INT-prone to one of the coolest passers in the league, it is safe to say he is high up on our list heading in to 2017.

This season, it may be a case of Thorson also needed to add a bit more to the ground game. He picked up just 98 yards on 97 carries last season. That was following a promising start to his career with his feet. Northwestern doesn’t need him to be J.T. Barrett on the ground, but expanding that part of his game to go with the established passing attack could give Pat Fitzgerald and the Wildcats plenty of ammo on offense.

No. 8 — Rashan Gary, DE (Michigan)

2016 Season Stats: 24 tackles, 5.0 tackles for loss, 1 sack, 6 QB hurries
Best Game: vs. UCF – 6 tackles, 2.0 tackles for loss, 1 sack

Michigan snapped up the No. 1 player in the 2016 recruiting rankings, so expectations were high for Gary. He rose to the occasion and got himself in to the mix on a loaded and deep Wolverines defensive line. He showed power off the edge and a capability to be very disruptive at the line of scrimmage. Gary’s game is far from perfect, but if he works at the rate he did in 2016, look for him to be one of the best pass rushers in the Big Ten when 2017 is all said and done.

His length, athleticism and strength at his age are just incredible. Will he be able to live up to the hype and the increased attention on and off the field in 2017? That’s his real challenge.

No. 7. — J.T. Barrett, QB (Ohio State)

2016 Season Stats: 61.5 comp. %, 2,555 yards, 24 TD’s, 7 INT’s; 845 yards, 9 TD’s rushing
Best Game: vs. Nebraska – 65.1 comp. %, 290 yards, 4TD’s passing; 39 yards rushing

It is hard to believe that one…J.T. Barrett is still in college football, and two…that is hasn’t won a Heisman Trophy yet. We’re pretty sure if you asked 2014 versions of ourselves if that was possible we would’ve told you you were nuts. But, we are blessed with one final season from Barrett in the OSU colors.

Some of those same 2014 folks would be surprised to see him this low on the list. There’s no doubt that the talent is there, but his passing numbers have steadily declined and somehow Barrett has actually become a less accurate passer over time. Still, he’s arguably the most dangerous dual-threat quarterback in the league and one of the best on-field leaders as well. His intangibles and ability to literally will a team to victory can’t be overlooked and that’s why he’s in our top 10.

No. 6. — Tegray Scales, LB (Indiana)

2016 Season Stats: 126 tackles, 23.5 tackles for loss, 7.0 sacks, 1 INT, 1 TD, 1 FF, 2 PBU, 4 QB Hurries
Best Game: vs. Penn State – 9 tackles, 4.0 tackles for loss, 1 sack

No player benefited more from a coaching change in 2016 than Indiana linebacker Tegray Scales did. Tom Allen’s unique 4-2-5 system actually made Scales the focal point of the defense and he delivered in a big way. The stats are certainly impressive, but it is the how it all happened that makes him one of the most intriguing players to watch this upcoming season.

Don’t be surprised to see his name mentioned with some of the best in the country at linebacker. He simply makes plays and does it wherever and however asked to by the coaching staff. A sign of his quality? Two his best games came in losses to Penn State and Northwestern, where Scales did everything he could to will his team to victory but just couldn’t get the offensive help needed. He’ll have more parts around him this season and that should make things really fun to watch.

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